Nigel Farage has received a huge boost this morning as a shock new poll puts the party firmly on top in the race for power.
Reform UK has a seven-point lead on 29%, according to the YouGov poll for Sky News and The Times.
But Kemi Badenoch suffered a huge blow after new analysis suggested the Lib Dems are more popular than the Conservatives.
Just 16% of voters said they would back the Tories in a ballot.
This is compared to 17% for the Liberal Democrats.
Support for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party dropped to 22%.
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Nigel Farage’s Reform has a seven point lead (Image: Getty)
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The latest poll will be a huge blow to the Conservatives (Image: AFP via Getty Images)
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer acknowledged the threat of Reform when he addressed MPs last night.
He said: “The Conservatives are not our principal opponent. Reform are our main rivals for power. We have a moral responsibility to make sure Farage never wins.
“We have to be clear that every opportunity he has had in this Parliament to back working people he’s voted against. Telling the workers at Jaguar Land Rover they deserve to go bust.
“A state-slashing, NHS-privatising, Putin apologist. Without a single patriotic bone in his body. We will take to fight to him. We will fight as Labour.”
Mrs Badenoch declared: “My job is to pick all the pieces of the party and rebuild but because the public have just rejected us from government, they’re not rushing back immediately, instead, they’re looking at protest parties and challenger parties.”
“And what we need to do now is remind people that we are the only credible alternative to a Labour government. We are the serious party. We have the experience. Acknowledge that we made a lot of mistakes in government.”
The latest bombshell poll comes after the Tories suffered a devastating drubbing in the local elections.
Conservatives lost 674 council seats in this month’s local elections, more than two thirds of the seats they were defending, and lost control of previously “true blue” councils such as Staffordshire and Kent.
But the Tory leader has urged voters not to write her party off.
She argued her party needs to “redefine” what modern conservatism looks like, styling herself as an “insurgent’ and an “underdog”.
She said: “We need to redefine what modern conservatism looks like in this landscape. I’m the new kid on the block. I’m the insurgent now. I’m the underdog, and I need to remind people that the Conservative Party which disappointed them is not me, and we are the ones who are the ones who can channel the anger and the frustration.
“Why is it that roads are full of potholes? Why is it that things just don’t look like they’re working? Why is it that they don’t have enough money anymore? Where’s the disposable income gone? Why are we wasting it on all sorts of things that the government has no business whatsoever getting involved in?”
Labour has utilised global summits and trade deals to present Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer as a statesman after his party was hammered in northern England and the Midlands.
But the Prime Minister’s EU deal is likely to provoke a new wave of anger.
Former Labour MP Baroness Hoey admitted the government has “lost touch with ordinary people” and predicted further by-election wins for rival parties.
Speaking on GB News, Baroness Kate Hoey said: “Keir Starmer, as a prime minister, we know he’s had the worst polling records ever in such a short time, and I know that there’s talk about him going to go back on certain issues like the winter fuel payments.
“But I think the public now has really wakened up to the fact that many of them regretting very much that they voted Labour and realizing that Keir Starmer seems to be now, in my view, more in support and wanting to be close to the European Union than actually thinking about British people.
“You have to remember he has been a Remainer, a Europhile, for many, many years, and he was the person who led as the Labour shadow Europe minister, those awful three years when we had to keep fighting to just get Brexit over the line.”
Shock Poll Shows Reform Storming Ahead on 29% as Tories Drop to FOURTH
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has once again found itself at the centre of Britain’s increasingly volatile political landscape after a new poll headline claimed the party had surged to 29 per cent, raising fresh questions about the future of the Conservatives and the shape of the next general election.
The figures have generated considerable attention because they appear to underline just how dramatically Britain’s party system has changed since the 2024 general election.
However, the latest polling picture is more complicated than a single headline suggests.
The most recent YouGov poll, conducted on October 4 and 5, put Labour on 27 per cent, Reform UK on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 20 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens both on 11 per cent.
A separate More in Common poll reported on October 7 put Labour on 29 per cent, Reform on 24 per cent and the Conservatives on 21 per cent.
That means the broader evidence does not currently show Reform universally sitting at 29 per cent or the Conservatives universally falling into fourth place.
But the headline nevertheless highlights a real political development: Reform has become a major competitor for voters who previously supported the Conservative Party.
Reform’s remarkable rise
For Nigel Farage, the importance of the latest polling is not simply the precise percentage attached to Reform.
It is the fact that the party has established itself as a permanent part of the national political conversation.
Reform began the post-2024 period with only a handful of MPs, but its influence has expanded considerably through local elections, by-elections, defections and national campaigning.
Farage has sought to turn that momentum into something much bigger.
He has declared that Reform’s general election campaign has effectively begun and launched a “100 Days to Save Britain” programme designed to demonstrate that the party is preparing for government.
The strategy is straightforward.
Reform wants voters to believe that the choice at the next election will not simply be between Labour and the Conservatives.
Instead, Farage wants Reform to be seen as one of the principal parties competing for power.
The Conservatives face a difficult battle
The most important consequence of Reform’s rise may be what it means for the Conservative Party.
Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives are attempting to rebuild after their disastrous 2024 general election performance.
The party has been trying to regain voters from Reform while also appealing to more moderate Conservative supporters who have become uncomfortable with the direction of the political right.
Badenoch has recently placed tax cuts, economic growth and business-friendly policies at the heart of her political message.
At the Conservative Party conference, she proposed abolishing inheritance tax on family homes in future and reducing employer National Insurance contributions for younger workers.
But the party remains under pressure.
The Conservatives currently sit behind both Labour and Reform in several recent national polls.
The latest YouGov figures, for example, put the Conservatives on 20 per cent, only two points behind Reform but seven points behind Labour.
More in Common’s latest figures similarly place the Conservatives third, on 21 per cent.
The precise ranking can change from one poll to another.
The underlying problem, however, is consistent: the Conservatives are fighting for voters on multiple fronts.
Reform is attacking the traditional Tory coalition
Farage’s political strategy depends heavily on attracting voters who once regarded the Conservatives as their natural political home.
The issues are familiar.
Immigration.
Taxation.
Energy prices.
Brexit.
Welfare.
National sovereignty.
Net Zero.
Government spending.
Reform has developed a message around these subjects that is generally more confrontational than the Conservatives’ current approach.
That creates a difficult strategic problem for Badenoch.
If the Conservatives move significantly towards Reform’s policies, they risk losing moderate voters.
If they remain more cautious, Reform can argue that the Conservatives are not offering enough change.
Badenoch is therefore attempting to occupy political territory that is increasingly contested.
A new battle on the right
The latest polling has reinforced the idea that the next election could produce an unusually fragmented contest.
More in Common’s September MRP projected Reform to win 147 parliamentary seats, while the Conservatives were projected to win 125. The model also found that Reform’s projected seats were extremely marginal, with 102 of its 147 projected victories coming by fewer than five percentage points.
Those figures are not a forecast of an actual election result.
They are a model based on polling and constituency-level assumptions.
But they illustrate how closely contested the battle between Reform and the Conservatives could become.
More in Common found that relatively small movements between the two parties could significantly alter their projected parliamentary strength.
That makes every new poll politically significant.
Labour is still in the picture
The Reform surge should not be interpreted as evidence that Labour has disappeared from the contest.
Quite the opposite.
The latest YouGov poll put Labour five points ahead of Reform, at 27 per cent compared with 22 per cent.
More in Common’s October figures also put Labour ahead, at 29 per cent compared with Reform’s 24 per cent.
This is important because some political commentary has focused almost entirely on the struggle between Farage and the Conservatives.
The actual national polling picture remains a three-way contest involving Labour, Reform and the Conservatives, with smaller parties also capable of affecting constituency outcomes.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has recently attempted to reposition Labour around economic reform, public services and Britain’s future relationship with Europe.
His decision to reopen discussion about closer EU relations has also created a major political dividing line.
Farage has welcomed the debate because it allows Reform to return to one of the issues most closely associated with his political career.
Brexit returns to centre stage
The European question could become particularly important if Labour continues to explore closer relations with the EU.
Burnham has opened discussion about different options for Britain’s future relationship with Europe, including the possibility of eventual re-entry if circumstances and public opinion supported it.
Polling published recently by the Messina Group found 49 per cent support for rejoining the EU and 28.5 per cent opposition, although the question of how and whether such a change could actually be implemented remains politically complex.
For Farage, any suggestion of reversing Brexit offers an opportunity to portray Reform as the party defending the result of the 2016 referendum.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, remain committed to Brexit but face the challenge of explaining how they would make Britain’s post-EU economy work more effectively.
That debate could once again divide voters who thought the Brexit argument had largely been settled.
Farage’s governing pitch
One of the most significant developments in Reform’s strategy is the attempt to look ready for government.
Farage has announced a programme of measures he says would be delivered during Reform’s first 100 days in office.
The proposals include raising the income-tax personal allowance, cutting energy bills, stopping small-boat crossings and reforming higher education.
The party has also promised substantial changes to welfare policy and a different approach to Net Zero.
These policies are intended to give Reform a broader identity.
Rather than being defined solely by Brexit or immigration, the party wants to present itself as an alternative government covering the economy, energy, education, welfare and public services.
That inevitably means its policies will receive more scrutiny.
The central question will be how much they cost and how they would be implemented.
The Conservatives’ fourth-place problem
If a poll were to put the Conservatives in fourth place nationally, it would represent a significant political moment, even though a single poll would not determine an election outcome.
But the party’s current position already illustrates the scale of its challenge.
The Conservatives have historically been one of Britain’s two dominant parties.
They governed for much of the period before the 2024 election and have a substantial national organisation.
Yet Reform has created a new competitor to their right.
The Conservative leadership therefore has to solve two problems simultaneously.
It must persuade voters that the party has changed since the 2024 defeat.
And it must convince potential Reform voters that the Conservatives can offer policies on immigration, taxation, energy and national sovereignty that are sufficiently distinctive.
Badenoch’s latest conference programme is clearly intended to address some of those concerns.
Whether it changes the polling picture will require time and further surveys.
Polling volatility matters
The dramatic difference between individual polls is itself an important warning.
Within days, different surveys have produced noticeably different numbers.
YouGov’s October 4–5 poll showed Labour on 27 per cent, Reform on 22 per cent and Conservatives on 20 per cent.
More in Common’s latest poll has Labour on 29 per cent, Reform on 24 per cent and Conservatives on 21 per cent.
Other recent surveys have also produced different results.
This means voters should be cautious about treating any individual poll as a definitive picture of the next election.
Polls measure voting intentions at a particular moment.
They do not determine parliamentary seats directly, and Britain’s first-past-the-post system means that national vote shares can translate into very different numbers of MPs depending on where votes are distributed.
A transformed political landscape
Nevertheless, the broader story is difficult to ignore.
Reform is no longer a marginal presence in British politics.
The party is polling in the low-to-mid twenties in several recent national surveys and has built a significant parliamentary and local-government presence.
The Conservatives are attempting to recover.
Labour is attempting to consolidate support under Burnham.
The Liberal Democrats and Greens remain significant in particular parts of the country.
That creates a political environment very different from the traditional Labour-Conservative contest.
Farage’s objective is to make Reform one of the central pillars of that new system.
The Conservatives’ objective is to prevent Reform from permanently replacing them as the main force on the right.
Labour’s objective is to keep enough support across the political spectrum to remain competitive while avoiding losing voters to smaller parties.
What the 29 per cent headline really means
The most striking aspect of the “29 per cent” headline is therefore not simply the number.
It is what the figure represents politically.
Reform has created a situation in which a party that was once regarded primarily as a protest movement is now being discussed alongside Labour and the Conservatives as a serious national electoral force.
At the same time, the latest evidence does not support treating 29 per cent as an established national polling position for Reform.
The current surveys show a more mixed picture, with Labour ahead in the latest YouGov and More in Common results and Reform competing closely with the Conservatives for second place.
That distinction matters.
The political landscape is moving quickly, and individual polls can shift significantly.
For Farage, however, the strategic objective remains clear: maintain Reform’s visibility, expand its appeal and convince voters that the party is prepared to govern.
For Badenoch and the Conservatives, the challenge is to rebuild enough support to prevent the right-of-centre vote from fragmenting further.
And for Labour, the task is to defend its position while confronting challengers from both sides.
The next general election remains some distance away, and no responsible analysis can determine its eventual result from today’s polling.
What can be said is that Britain’s party system remains unusually fluid.
A single poll may make a dramatic headline, but the sustained movement across multiple surveys will ultimately be more important.
For now, the latest figures provide another reminder that Reform’s rise has fundamentally changed the political competition — and that the Conservatives are still fighting to define their place within it.
