Andy Burnham faces a major political challenge as Reform UK’s reported success in seven by-elections raises fresh questions about Labour’s ability to hold on to its traditional supporters. Despite signs that Labour may be recovering some ground in national polling, the local results described in the latest reports underline the difficulties facing a government attempting to rebuild trust among voters who have become increasingly frustrated with established political parties.

For Burnham, the issue goes beyond the number of seats won or lost. The deeper concern is whether Reform, led by Nigel Farage, can establish itself as a permanent alternative for working-class voters who once regarded Labour as their natural political home.

The picture, however, is not entirely one-sided. Labour’s reported recovery in one national poll and Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election suggest that the party retains the capacity to win support when it can persuade voters that its leadership represents a meaningful change.

The political contest is therefore far from settled. Reform has demonstrated its ability to challenge Labour in areas once considered difficult territory for the party, but Labour has also shown that Reform’s advance is not inevitable.

Seven by-election victories intensify pressure on Labour

The reported seven by-election wins provide Reform with a series of local successes that it can use to reinforce its national message. Each victory offers the party an opportunity to demonstrate that its support can translate into elected representation, rather than remaining confined to opinion polls or protest votes.

By-elections are often treated as indicators of the political mood because voters can use them to express dissatisfaction between general elections. A party that performs strongly may gain publicity, attract new supporters and persuade previously undecided voters that it is a credible contender.

Nevertheless, local results require careful interpretation. Turnout can be considerably lower than at a general election, and individual contests may be shaped by local controversies, candidate quality and the strength of competing campaigns. Seven victories do not automatically establish that the same outcome would occur across the country in a parliamentary election.

The significance for Labour lies in the wider pattern described in the source material: Reform has been able to make inroads in places where Labour once enjoyed a substantial electoral advantage.

That presents Burnham with a difficult political task. If voters who previously supported Labour are moving towards Reform, the government must understand whether their decisions reflect dissatisfaction with economic conditions, public services, immigration policy, political leadership or a combination of concerns.

Winning those voters back will require more than highlighting Reform’s weaknesses. Labour will also need to convince them that its own policies can deliver visible improvements to their lives.

Barnsley illustrates the scale of Labour’s challenge

Barnsley has emerged as a particularly important example of the changing political landscape.

According to the source article, Reform won 42 seats at the May 2026 local elections, leaving Labour with 11 councillors and ending Labour’s longstanding control of the council. The result marked a dramatic change in a borough that had been associated with Labour for generations.

The political importance of such a result extends beyond the council chamber. Barnsley represents the kind of community in which Labour has historically drawn support from industrial workers, public-sector employees and voters who identify with the party’s traditional economic and social priorities.

Reform’s success suggests that this loyalty can no longer be assumed.

For Labour, the challenge is particularly sensitive because a party’s historical relationship with a community can become a liability if voters believe it has stopped listening to them. Longstanding political allegiance may weaken when residents feel that their concerns are not reflected in national policy.

However, the Barnsley result should not be treated as proof that every former Labour voter has permanently switched allegiance. Local election results reflect the choices of those who voted on a particular day, and individual motivations cannot be established from the seat totals alone.

The key question for Burnham is whether the factors behind Labour’s losses can be addressed through policy changes and stronger engagement with affected communities.

If the answer is yes, Labour may have opportunities to recover support. If dissatisfaction persists, Reform could continue to benefit from the breakdown of traditional voting patterns.

Makerfield proves Labour can still fight back

Burnham’s victory in Makerfield offers an important counterpoint to Reform’s local successes.

The June 18, 2026, by-election saw Burnham win 24,927 votes, representing 54.8% of the vote, while Reform’s candidate received 15,696 votes, or 34.5%. Labour retained the seat with a majority of 9,231. <Cite refs={[“turn461390search3”]}/>

The result demonstrated that Reform can mount a substantial challenge in a Labour constituency without necessarily winning it. It also gave Burnham an opportunity to establish his electoral credentials and argue that Labour can reconnect with voters who have become disillusioned with the party.

However, the figures also show that Reform secured more than a third of the vote in the contest. That is a substantial level of support for a challenger and a reminder that Labour cannot afford to become complacent.

The lesson for both parties is that local political loyalties are changing, but they have not disappeared altogether. Labour can still mobilise support, while Reform can attract voters who might previously have considered the party an unlikely alternative.

For Burnham, the challenge is to turn a personal victory into a broader political recovery. One constituency result cannot establish whether Labour has repaired its relationship with voters across the country.

Polling offers Labour some breathing room

National polling provides another reason to avoid treating Reform’s local successes as proof that Labour’s position is irreversibly weakening.

A YouGov survey published in July found Reform on 23%, Labour on 21% and the Conservatives on 20%. It also recorded an improvement in Labour’s support compared with the party’s earlier lows in the same polling series. <Cite refs={[“turn461390search4”]}/>

More recent polling reported by The Times on October 13 showed the Conservatives at 23%, Labour at 24% and Reform at 21%. The figures suggest a competitive three-party landscape, although polling movements can be temporary and small differences should not be mistaken for definitive evidence of a lasting shift. <Cite refs={[“turn461390news42”]}/>

These national figures measure voting intentions among surveyed respondents, not actual votes cast in local elections. They therefore cannot directly confirm or disprove the significance of the seven by-election victories.

Nevertheless, they underline the uncertainty facing all three major parties. Reform has demonstrated its ability to win local representation, Labour has shown signs of recovering support, and the Conservatives remain capable of competing for voters dissatisfied with the government.

Burnham will need to turn any improvement in polling into public confidence in his administration. That will depend not only on his political messaging but also on whether voters believe the government is making progress on their everyday concerns.

Farage must prove Reform can govern

Reform’s electoral strategy has benefited from its ability to present itself as an alternative to the established parties. Its message on immigration, dissatisfaction with Westminster and demands for political change has helped it attract support beyond its previous electoral base.

But winning seats brings responsibilities that campaigning alone cannot fulfil.

Local councillors must respond to residents, scrutinise spending, engage with council services and make decisions about competing demands on limited budgets. A party that gains control of local authorities must demonstrate that it can manage these responsibilities effectively.

Barnsley is therefore more than a symbol of Labour’s difficulties. With Reform holding 42 of the council’s 63 seats following the May elections, the authority provides a concrete test of the party’s ability to exercise local power. <Cite refs={[“turn461390search0″,”turn461390search1”]}/>

The performance of Reform-led councils could influence how voters assess the party’s readiness for greater responsibility. If residents believe their concerns are being addressed, the party may strengthen its credibility. If they become dissatisfied with local decisions, its opponents will have an opportunity to challenge its claims.

Nationally, Reform also faces questions about the detail and practical consequences of its policies. Opposition parties can build support by criticising government decisions, but a party seeking national office must explain how it would finance its promises and deliver its priorities.

The same standard applies to Labour. Burnham’s government will be judged by its results, not simply by its ability to criticise Farage.

The Red Wall remains central to the battle

The struggle for voters in northern and working-class England remains one of the defining features of Britain’s changing political landscape.

For Labour, these communities have historically provided a foundation of support. For Reform, they offer an opportunity to challenge the assumption that those voters will continue backing the same party regardless of its policies or leadership.

Economic pressures, public service concerns, immigration and distrust of national politicians can all influence voting behaviour. Yet it would be simplistic to assume that every Reform supporter shares the same priorities or that every former Labour voter has switched for identical reasons.

Burnham’s background in Greater Manchester politics could help him communicate with voters who feel distant from Westminster. But familiarity and political identity will not necessarily be enough. Voters who have changed their allegiance may want clear evidence that Labour understands their concerns and can deliver practical improvements.

That could require the government to explain its approach to economic growth, employment, housing, public services and migration in ways that connect national decisions with local experiences.

Reform, meanwhile, must convince voters that its appeal extends beyond opposition to the current government. The party needs to demonstrate that its policies can produce workable outcomes for the communities it seeks to represent.

A warning, not a settled verdict

The reported seven by-election victories offer Reform a valuable political argument and give Labour reason to examine where its support is weakening. But the wider evidence does not support treating the results as a definitive verdict on Burnham’s leadership or the next general election.

Barnsley’s dramatic council results show that Labour can lose control of a traditional stronghold. Makerfield demonstrates that Burnham can still win a substantial majority against Reform. National polling, meanwhile, suggests that the contest between Labour, Reform and the Conservatives remains fluid.

These developments are not contradictory. They illustrate a political environment in which support varies between local areas and national surveys, and where voters may be willing to switch parties rather than remain loyal to a single political tradition.

The next test for Burnham will be whether his government can convert its early signs of recovery into sustained public confidence. For Farage, the challenge will be to build on Reform’s local victories and demonstrate that the party can deliver effective representation.

Ultimately, the most important question is not whether seven by-election wins amount to a national political earthquake. It is whether they reflect grievances that established parties can address or a deeper realignment that will reshape British politics for years to come.

Labour cannot safely assume that its traditional supporters will return simply because its leadership has changed. Reform cannot assume that voters who support it in one contest will remain loyal indefinitely.

For now, the reported results are a warning to both sides: Britain’s political loyalties are changing, and neither Labour nor Reform can take future support for granted.