Nigel Farage’s popularity surging as Reform UK woos surprise group of voters

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is more popular with Gen Z women, polling shows (Image: Getty)

Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK is attracting a demographic the outfit has struggled to woo in the past, polling shows. Reform’s vote share among Gen Z women, those aged 18-26, soared in May from 12% to 21% after the local elections, figures from the thinktank More in Common first shared with Politico show.

The data appears to show a majority ditched the Conservatives for Reform. Louis O’Geran, Research Assistant at More in Common, said: “In the General Election, you could confidently say the median Reform voter is a middle-aged man who voted for Brexit. The gender gap is narrowing, but also that age distribution is spreading out.”

Mr O’Geran said young women are dissatisfied with Labour and the Conservatives, with a “sense” the two main parties aren’t working.

More in Common’s May voting intention survey shows 21% of Gen Z women opting for Reform; 33% for Labour; 26% Green Party; 9% Liberal Democratsm and 6% Conservatives.

This compares to 26% of Gen Z men favouring Reform, 16% Green, 35% Labour, 6% Lib Dem and 13% Conservative.

The polling is based on an average of four surveys carried out last month among some 9,000 UK adults.

Mr O’Geran said: “While the increase in support among Gen Z women is really significant, they started on a far lower base than any other age group.”

He added: “The increase is probably part of a wider expansion of Reform’s support following the election.”

Mr Farage’s rising popularity among Gen Z women may come as a surprise to some, with Reform UK’s leader once having praised the controversial influencer Andrew Tate, who faces criminal charges in Romania and the UK, which he denies. Reform’s leader said Mr Tate was an “important voice” for “emasculated” men.

Reform UK’s election manifesto also includes a pledge to ditch the Equality Act, part of which prohibits discrimination on gender.

Meanwhile, Reform UK surged into third place in Holyrood’s by-election vote in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse on Thursday (June 5). Reform secured 26% of the vote, while the Tories won just 6%. Labour won the seat.

Reform’s rise in the polls has led Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to regard Mr Farage’s outfit as Labour’s main opposition, despite Reform having only five MPs.

Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, insisted on Friday (June 6) that the Conservatives are still the main opposition to Labour despite the result north of the border.

Mrs Badenoch dismissed Reform as a “protest party” and said claims it was the real opposition were “nonsense”.

Dismissing Reform as “another left-wing party”, she said: “What they’re trying to do is talk this situation into existence.

“Labour is going to be facing the Conservative Party at the next election and we’re going to get them out.”

Nigel Farage remains one of the most recognisable and controversial figures in British politics, but the political landscape around him is changing rapidly. Reform UK is attempting to broaden its appeal beyond the voters who have traditionally formed the core of its support, while Farage himself continues to play a central role in the party’s efforts to attract people from across the political spectrum.

Recent polling presents a complicated picture. Farage remains unpopular among the wider British public, with YouGov reporting in September that 69 percent of Britons viewed him unfavourably, compared with 24 percent who viewed him favourably. At the same time, the same polling and a wider YouGov voter study show that Farage has exceptionally strong support among people who already back Reform UK.

That contrast is important because it illustrates the challenge facing Reform. The party has a highly committed base, but its ambitions require it to reach voters who have not traditionally supported Farage or his political projects.

One particularly notable development has been Reform’s ability to attract voters who previously supported Labour. That movement matters because Labour voters have historically represented a very different political constituency from the Eurosceptic and anti-establishment electorate associated with Farage.

The YouGov voter study found that 79 percent of people who had moved from Labour to Reform viewed Farage positively. That was lower than the 94 percent favourable rating among people who had supported the Conservatives or Reform in 2024, but it still demonstrated that a large majority of these Labour-to-Reform switchers had a positive opinion of the Reform leader.

This helps explain why Reform UK is increasingly trying to present itself as a party capable of building a much broader coalition.

For years, Farage’s political appeal was strongly associated with Brexit. His role in the campaign for Britain’s departure from the European Union established him as one of the most recognisable Eurosceptic politicians in the country.

Today, however, Reform is seeking to build its political message around a much wider range of concerns. Immigration, public services, taxation, energy bills, housing and the cost of living have become central elements of the party’s political communication.

That strategy is designed to reach voters who may not be particularly interested in Brexit but who are dissatisfied with the established political parties.

The political environment is also helping Reform gain attention. Britain is experiencing a fragmented party system in which voters are increasingly willing to move between parties. The traditional Conservative-Labour contest has become less predictable, while smaller parties have gained greater visibility.

Recent voting-intention polling illustrates the competitive nature of the current landscape. An Opinium poll conducted at the end of September put Labour on 30 percent, Reform on 25 percent, the Conservatives on 17 percent, the Greens on 11 percent and the Liberal Democrats on 9 percent.

Another YouGov poll conducted on October 4-5 placed Labour on 27 percent, Reform on 22 percent and the Conservatives on 20 percent.

These figures should not be interpreted as predictions of an election result. They represent snapshots of public opinion at particular moments, and polling can move significantly before an election. Nevertheless, they demonstrate why Reform’s efforts to expand its coalition are receiving considerable political attention.

Farage’s personal position is equally complicated.

Although he remains highly popular among Reform supporters, his national favourability figures remain negative. Opinium’s September 30 polling gave him a net approval rating of minus 22, while BritPolls’ tracker on October 5 put his net approval at minus 21.2.

This means that Reform’s challenge is not simply to persuade existing supporters to remain loyal. It must also determine whether voters who dislike Farage personally can nevertheless be persuaded to support his party.

That distinction could prove significant.

Political parties are not always dependent on voters liking their leaders. Some people vote primarily on issues, while others use their vote to express dissatisfaction with the government or the established political system.

Reform appears to be attempting to take advantage of precisely this environment.

The party’s message increasingly focuses on practical concerns affecting households. Its recent political campaign has emphasised stopping small-boat crossings, raising the income-tax allowance, reducing energy bills and reforming higher education.

These issues potentially give Reform an opportunity to appeal beyond its traditional political identity.

The surprise element in the party’s growing coalition is particularly interesting because it challenges assumptions about who a Reform voter is.

For years, Farage was primarily associated with Conservative voters who were dissatisfied with the direction of the Tory Party. But Reform has increasingly attracted people who previously voted Labour as well.

That shift reflects wider changes in British politics.

Working-class voters in parts of northern and post-industrial Britain have become increasingly open to parties outside Labour. At the same time, some Conservative voters have moved towards Reform because they believe the Conservatives failed to deliver on issues such as immigration and government reform.

The result is an unusual coalition.

Reform’s support can include former Conservatives, former Labour voters, Brexit supporters, anti-establishment voters and people primarily concerned about immigration or the cost of living.

Keeping such a coalition together will not necessarily be easy.

Different groups may agree on one issue while disagreeing strongly on another. A voter who supports Reform because of immigration may have very different economic priorities from a former Labour voter attracted by promises relating to wages, taxation or public services.

This creates a challenge for Farage.

The more Reform attempts to broaden its appeal, the more it must demonstrate that its policies can satisfy voters with different priorities.

The party’s approach to the economy will therefore be closely watched. So too will its position on public spending, taxation, welfare, energy and the NHS.

Immigration remains one of Reform’s defining issues, but the party increasingly needs to demonstrate that it has a complete governing programme rather than simply a collection of opposition arguments.

Farage himself appears conscious of the need to keep the political agenda focused on issues where Reform believes it has an advantage.

He has recently argued that the government’s renewed discussion of Britain’s relationship with the European Union has created an opportunity for Reform. Farage described the reopening of the Brexit debate as a major political boost because, in his view, it places his party back at the centre of a question that helped define his political career.

However, Brexit is no longer the same political issue it was a decade ago.

YouGov polling has found that a majority of Britons now believe the decision to leave the EU was wrong, although this does not automatically mean that voters want Britain to rejoin.

That creates another balancing act for Reform. Farage can continue to emphasise his Brexit credentials, but the party also needs to appeal to voters who are more interested in current economic and social problems.

The rise of other political figures also complicates the picture.

YouGov’s voter study found that Kemi Badenoch had become increasingly popular among current Reform voters. The proportion of Reform voters viewing the Conservative leader favourably had risen substantially compared with the previous year.

At the same time, Rupert Lowe has also attracted positive ratings among significant sections of the Reform coalition, creating another potential source of competition on the right.

This means Farage’s position cannot be considered in isolation.

Reform’s future political strength will depend on whether the party can maintain its existing supporters while persuading new groups that it can represent their interests.

That is why the movement of former Labour voters towards Reform is so significant.

If Reform can establish itself as a credible destination for voters who once considered Labour their natural political home, its electoral coalition could look very different from the one associated with Farage during the Brexit era.

But polling should always be interpreted carefully.

Individual surveys can fluctuate, and approval ratings are not the same as voting intention. A politician can have a relatively unpopular personal image while leading a party with substantial electoral support. Equally, strong support within a particular group does not necessarily translate into nationwide popularity.

The evidence therefore points to a mixed picture rather than a simple story of Farage becoming universally more popular.

His strongest support remains concentrated among Reform voters, while his overall national favourability remains negative. Yet the composition of Reform’s support is changing, and the party is reaching some voters who previously supported Labour and the Conservatives.

That may ultimately be more important for Reform than Farage’s personal approval rating.

The central question is whether Reform can turn a collection of dissatisfied voters into a durable political coalition.

Farage has spent decades building a distinctive political identity around issues including Brexit, immigration and opposition to the political establishment. Reform UK now faces the next stage of that project: persuading voters that the party can address the wider challenges facing Britain.

For now, the polling provides evidence of both opportunity and difficulty.

Farage remains deeply divisive, but he also commands unusually strong loyalty among his own supporters. Reform is attracting voters from different political backgrounds, including a notable group of former Labour voters. At the same time, national approval figures show that a substantial proportion of the electorate remains unconvinced by the Reform leader.

The coming months will reveal whether the party can bridge that divide.

For Reform UK, the objective is no longer simply to make Nigel Farage heard. It is to convince a much wider range of voters that the party deserves serious consideration across the full range of national issues.

That makes the battle for new voters just as important as the loyalty of Reform’s existing base.