Keir Starmer just left an unexploded bomb under Andy Burnham’s desk – it’s a big problem.VA
James Knuckey reflects on whether Andy Burnham will be secretly cursing Keir Starmer for the mess that’s been left behind.
Andy Burnham will become PM on Monday (Image: HENRY NICHOLLS/POOL/EPA/Shutterstock)
Andy Burnham’s coronation is almost upon us, but he’s kidding himself if he thinks sorting out defence will be as plain sailing as his route to Number 10. The King of the North is walking into icy cold tensions that make a winter’s morning in Manchester seem tropical.
The Russian threat is growing faster than Manchester’s GDP, and so far we know little about Mr Burnham’s plans for defence and the country as a whole. There is, of course, the “No 10 in the North” idea, but I can’t imagine the prospect of more devolution is making Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin cronies think twice about prodding our defences. Our military needs more support now and Mr Burnham needs to quickly wrap his mind around the complicated defence brief.
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Defence might just be Andy Burnham’s biggest challenge as Prime Minister (Image: Xinhua/Shutterstock)
His first (and certainly not the last) challenge will be finding an extra £4.7billion for defence in his first budget.
This gaping hole was a parting gift from Sir Keir Starmer as he finally announced the much-delayed Defence Investment Plan (DIP), without fully figuring out how it will be funded.
The Tories have described the plan as a “delayed-action poison pill” for Mr Burnham, while one ally is said to have compared it to an “unexploded bomb”.
The military needs more investment (Image: Ben Birchall/PA Wire)
Filling this black hole will take some difficult decisions but cutting the burgeoning welfare bill seems an obvious solution to a very serious problem.
Whether Mr Burnham decides to take up this option, which will not go down well with his supporters on the Labour backbenches, is another question but one that must be seriously considered.
The Labour stalwart has also pledged to back British businesses.
This will be welcomed by our homegrown defence industry, which has taken a hammering from the DIP delays, but the reality is they need action, not more political soundbites.
The Defence Secretary has stressed the need for more autonomous weapons, but analysts have warned this should not come at the expense of traditional crewed platforms.
Only sufficient funding will ensure both of these requirements are met and that might just be Mr Burnham’s hardest challenge as PM.
Decision on British tanks in Estonia
On NATO’s eastern frontier, British forces are embracing newer technologies in response to the increased threat posed by Russia.
Challenger 2 tanks are set to be withdrawn from Estonia and replaced by high-tech drones.
The UK troops based in the country as part of a NATO deterrence mission will transition from an Armoured Battlegroup to a Mobile Anti-Armour Force from April next year. The shift will also see the number of British soldiers increase from about 800 to 1,200.
A Challenger 2 tank in Estonia (Image: Getty)
It follows lessons from Ukraine where drones have become the defining weapon of the war, with tanks suffering heavy losses.
It’s understood the decision has been a couple of years in the making, with the agility of the new force singled out as a key reason for the change.
But the era of the tank is not over: the Challenger 2s will have future taskings while 148 are being upgraded to the Challenger 3.
Argentina and the Falkland Islands
Argentina’s antics around their claim to the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands this week have been outrageous.
First, members of Argentina’s squad held up a banner that read “Las Malvinas son Argentinas”, which translates to “The Falkland Islands are Argentinian”, as they celebrated their World Cup semi-final victory over England.
Hours later, Argentina accused a Royal Navy warship of an “illegal journey” and “military incursion” into its waters. This is, of course, nonsense and Downing Street has rejected these allegations.
Number 10 said Buenos Aires was notified in advance of HMS Medway’s transit before the patrol vessel made a routine visit to Chile to deliver essential supplies for the UK’s polar research institute in Antarctica.
The journey was made over a week ago between July 5 and 8, yet Argentina only decided to make this false claim after the World Cup victory.
This is a deliberate and desperate attempt from Buenos Aires to rile Britain up, but the truth is this is a total non-story.
