New polling has been Reform UK on a 34% vote share – the highest to date (Image: Getty)

The polling revealed that the Prime Minister has a 73% dissatisfaction rating (Image: Getty)

Farage said the results show that “the British people now really believe that we can win the next election”.

The Political Monitor, which is the first published by Ipsos since the general election in July, also shows the extent of Labour’s dip in popularity since Sir Keir Starmer entered Downing Street almost a year ago.

Nigel Farage topped the list of leader satisfaction ratings with 34% to Starmer’s 19% and Badenoch’s 11%, although all three have negative net satisfaction overall, at -15, -54 and -49 respectively.

Ipsos’ polling uses an online voter panel selected using random probability sampling, with respondents adjusted in accordance with the adult population profile on factors including age, gender, qualifications and ethnicity.

“Reform UK has continued to build on its success, helped by high levels of enthusiasm among its own support and among working class voters in particular, and taking votes from both Labour and especially the Conservatives, who show little sign of recovery.”

“We know from Ipsos research how difficult it has been to shift entrenched public pessimism over the cost of living, immigration, and the state of public services, and so far, Britons do not think Labour is delivering the tangible change they were hoping for in 2024,” he added.

“Labour will be hoping that the Spending Review will start to switch the narrative to a more positive one of renewal, but the challenge they face is significant.”

Reform Set to Win Next Election? Bombshell Poll Shows Starmer’s Labour Under Pressure

Britain’s political landscape has changed dramatically since the 2024 general election, but the latest polling suggests the story is more complicated than claims that Reform UK is already on course to win the next election.

Nigel Farage’s party spent much of the period after the 2024 election surging in national opinion polls, at times opening substantial leads over both Labour and the Conservatives. Reform also made major gains in local and devolved elections, strengthening its argument that it has moved beyond being a protest party and is now a serious force in British politics.

Yet the latest figures show that political momentum can change quickly.

A YouGov poll conducted on October 4 and 5 puts Labour on 27 per cent, three points higher than its previous score. Reform UK has fallen three points to 22 per cent, while the Conservatives are on 20 per cent. The Liberal Democrats and Greens are both on 11 per cent. The survey involved 2,312 adults across Great Britain.

That result is significant because Labour’s 27 per cent represents its highest YouGov rating since January 2025. It is also the first statistically significant lead for any party in the pollster’s tracker for three months.

For Reform, however, the longer-term picture remains important. The party has demonstrated that it can compete for first place nationally, attract former Conservative voters and put pressure on Labour in parts of England and Wales that once appeared relatively secure for the established parties.

The question now is whether that support can be converted into enough constituency victories at a general election.

A dramatic reversal in the polls

The latest YouGov numbers represent a notable reversal from some of the polling seen earlier in 2026.

In August, YouGov had Reform on 24 per cent and Labour on 22 per cent, placing Farage’s party two points ahead.

By early September, however, Opinium recorded Labour on 28 per cent and Reform on 24 per cent. The September Ipsos Political Monitor similarly put Labour ahead, on 27 per cent compared with 23 per cent for Reform.

The latest Opinium poll, conducted at the beginning of October, went further. Labour reached 30 per cent, with Reform on 25 per cent and the Conservatives on 17 per cent.

Taken together, these surveys demonstrate why claims about a guaranteed Reform victory should be treated cautiously. Different pollsters use different methodologies and fieldwork periods, while voting intentions can move substantially over relatively short periods.

The political environment is therefore highly fluid rather than settled.

What happened to Reform’s momentum?

Reform’s rise remains one of the most important developments in British politics.

The party has benefited from dissatisfaction over immigration, taxation, public services, energy costs, Brexit and the performance of successive governments. Farage has also attempted to transform Reform into a broader political organisation capable of competing for power rather than simply influencing the Conservative Party from outside.

The party’s local-election performance provided another boost.

But national elections are ultimately decided constituency by constituency. A strong national vote share does not automatically translate into a parliamentary majority, particularly when support is spread across many constituencies rather than concentrated efficiently.

That makes the electoral map just as important as headline voting intention.

A YouGov MRP published in September illustrated the point. Its model projected Labour as the largest party with 241 seats, compared with 130 for the Conservatives and 123 for Reform UK. The model was based on almost 17,000 respondents and was explicitly a hypothetical projection of what would happen if an election were held at that time.

It did not provide evidence that any party was guaranteed to win a future election.

Labour’s recovery matters

For Labour, the latest polling represents a considerable improvement compared with some of the darkest periods of its post-2024 political fortunes.

The party won 411 seats at the 2024 general election, giving it a large Commons majority. Since then, however, its national support declined sharply in several polls, while Reform gained ground among voters who had previously supported the Conservatives and, in some cases, Labour.

The latest figures suggest that Labour has recovered some of the voters it previously lost.

The most recent YouGov results show Labour at 27 per cent, Reform at 22 per cent and the Conservatives at 20 per cent.

That does not mean Labour has returned to the position it occupied immediately after the 2024 election. Twenty-seven per cent would still represent a dramatic reduction in support compared with the party’s 2024 vote share.

It does, however, show why describing Labour as simply collapsing would not accurately reflect the latest evidence.

Reform still has a major opportunity

Despite the latest setback in headline polling, Reform has several advantages.

First, it has established a distinct political identity. Immigration and opposition to parts of the government’s climate and energy agenda remain central to its appeal.

Second, Reform has succeeded in attracting significant attention in areas where the Conservatives previously dominated. That creates the possibility of a major reshaping of the British right.

Third, Farage remains one of the most recognisable figures in British politics. His ability to generate media attention gives Reform an advantage that many smaller parties struggle to replicate.

But recognition is not the same thing as electoral victory.

Reform’s leadership must still demonstrate that its organisation can withstand scrutiny, select candidates effectively, manage local government responsibilities and persuade voters who may agree with individual policies but remain uncertain about the party as a governing organisation.

That last point is particularly important.

An Opinium poll conducted in September found that only 25 per cent agreed Reform was ready for government, while 54 per cent disagreed. The same survey showed negative ratings for the party on several other governing attributes.

These figures indicate that Reform’s challenge is no longer simply attracting attention. It must convince voters that it can turn political demands into workable government policy.

The Conservatives face a difficult three-way contest

The Conservative position adds another layer of uncertainty.

The latest YouGov poll places the Conservatives only two points behind Reform, at 20 per cent.

That creates the possibility of a three-way contest on the right rather than a simple Labour-versus-Reform battle.

For Reform, the Conservatives remain both a potential source of voters and a competitor. Every percentage point won by Reform from Conservative supporters could strengthen Farage’s position, but a revived Conservative Party could also prevent Reform from consolidating the centre-right vote.

This could become one of the defining questions of the next general election.

No party can take victory for granted

The phrase “set to win” makes a dramatic headline, but polling does not justify treating the next election as predetermined.

Indeed, the latest evidence points in the opposite direction: a volatile electorate in which Labour, Reform and the Conservatives are all capable of moving significantly.

The YouGov MRP from September projected a hung parliament, with Labour as the largest party but well short of an overall majority.

Meanwhile, the latest national voting-intention poll gives Labour a five-point advantage over Reform.

The political lesson is therefore less straightforward than either side might prefer.

Reform has demonstrated that it can become a major national electoral force. Labour has demonstrated that its support can recover. The Conservatives remain close enough to Reform in the latest YouGov numbers to complicate the picture further.

With the next general election still dependent on the political timetable, there is plenty of time for these positions to change again.

For Farage and Reform, the task is to turn national momentum into durable constituency-level support and persuade undecided voters that the party is ready to govern.

For Labour, the challenge is to maintain its recent recovery while preventing Reform from regaining the initiative.

And for the Conservatives, the central question is whether they can recover enough support to remain competitive in a political landscape increasingly shaped by a three-party struggle.

The next election therefore remains wide open in political terms. The latest polling does not establish a Reform victory, but neither does it erase the extraordinary rise the party has experienced.

What it does show is that Britain’s political realignment is continuing — and that neither Labour nor Reform can safely assume that today’s polling position will be tomorrow’s election result.