Bargain hunting Boxing Day shoppers are predicted to splurge a billion pounds less today (Friday) than last year as the cost-of-living crisis hits traditional seasonal sales. According to Barclays, it appears high street shoppers are feeling the pinch this Christmas, with predicted spending down from £4.6 billion in 2024 to £3.6 billion this year.

The banking giant said the plunge was “likely due to cost-of-living concerns”, meaning fewer people will be venturing out to shop till they drop. However, it said people who do splash the cash will likely spend more than in 2024 – up from an average of £236 to £253. Just over a quarter (26%) of people surveyed plan to spend on Boxing Day this year, down from 28% in 2024. Clothes, shoes and accessories are at the top of shoppers’ wish lists this year, its survey research suggests, followed by food and drink, beauty products, homeware and discounted Christmas items.

The worrying drop in predicted spending comes after Sir Keir Starmer acknowledged that “many across Britain are still struggling with the cost of living” in his Christmas message. The Prime Minister said that “helping” was his “priority”, but admitted “hardship can feel even more acute” during the festive period.

The Bank of England warned last week that growth was on track to flatline in the final three months of 2025, having been on a downward path since the beginning of the year.

Footfall figures for Christmas Eve showed that overall high street shopper numbers were down by 0.9%, with market towns and Greater London recording the biggest fall compared to 2024, at -3.2%, according to data from MRI Software.

In contrast, retail parks experienced a 5.4% increase in visitors compared to December 24 of last year. The biggest year-on-year increase for the day was seen in coastal towns, with an impressive 7.8% spike.

The retail sector had been relying on the so-called “golden quarter”, which includes Black Friday (November 28), Cyber Monday (December 1) and the post-Christmas sales to boost revenue.

However, signs that shoppers’ budgets remain stretched are evident, as seven in 10 (69%) people surveyed reported that cost pressures are affecting their spending, up from 47% when similar research was conducted in 2024. Opinium Research conducted a survey on behalf of Barclays among 2,000 people across the UK in November.

The study also found that AI (artificial intelligence) is seeping into shopping habits, with two-fifths (37%) of people surveyed saying they use AI or “smart” tools when shopping, rising to more than half (53%) of people aged 18 to 34. People said that AI and smart tools help them to research products, compare prices and deals, generate gift ideas and set up personalised alerts.

Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said: “Shoppers have demonstrated just how cost-conscious they are throughout 2025, and we expect that we’ll see this play out during the Boxing Day sales, particularly with AI empowering consumers to shop smarter and seek out the best deals.

“Those that do hit the high street might benefit both from bigger budgets, perhaps having held out for the sales, and potentially less competition, from fewer sales shoppers.

“Boxing Day is still a pivotal moment for retailers, fuelled by Christmas nostalgia, but it has evolved to reflect modern consumer demands.”