Haters gonna hate, and no doubt Reform-haters were delighted when some recent polls had Nigel Farage’s party down a fraction or two in terms of support. For example, one mid-November poll from YouGov had Reform 6 points ahead of Labour on 25%, down 2 points from an earlier poll.

The latest YouGov however has Reform back on a 7-point lead with 26% of public support. Moreover, the latest poll by Focaldata puts Reform 9 points ahead of Labour on 29% versus 8 points ahead in its earlier poll (28%). True, pollster Opinium recorded a 1% drop in support for Reform in its latest poll, which – when coupled with a jump in support for Labour – saw Reform’s lead decline from 13 to 10 points.

But, come on, 10 points ahead is still 10 points ahead. And is a 1-point drop from Find Out Now from 14 to 13 points (or, in percentage terms, 32 to 31%) really that meaningful? If I was Sir Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch I wouldn’t be popping the champagne yet!

Truthfully, if after all the hearsay and allegations about what Nigel Farage may or may not have said in 1977; if after the Home Secretary’s big illegal migration crackdown; and if, after the unusual amount of airtime given to Tory leader after the Budget, Reform is still so far ahead, what does that tell you?

Voters realise the Guardian ‘exposé’ on Farage’s school days is politically motivated; Shabana Mahmood’s migration reforms will never overcome legal challenges so long as Britain remains signed up to the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and the Tories have zero credibility left after 14 years of failure.

The polls may move up and down a notch here and there but, as the year draws to an end, the trendline is so very clear. Reform heads into 2026 ahead of the pack and certain to storm next May’s local elections.

That said, for Reform to be confident of a parliamentary majority, the party’s average polling probably needs to be nearer 40% than 30%. That means trying to peel away up to half of remaining Tory voters at the very least.

The next year therefore will be crucial for Reform to flesh out its policies on everything from the economy to foreign affairs and defence. Reform has the benefit of being the new kid on the block, but Farage’s party needs to have credibility beyond immigration.

The polls are clear: Reform remains the party to beat. But the next 12 months will be crucial in holding this lead and building upon it. Farage knows rival parties will resort to desperate measures the longer Reform stays out in front. Expect a bumpy year ahead.