Nigel Farage would be forgiven for grinning from ear to ear after YouGov’s latest poll not only put his Reform UK ahead of all the other parties but had the Tories for the first time in fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats. The poll – for the Times and Sky News – put Reform on 29%, Labour on 22%, the Lib Dems on 17% and the Conservatives on 16%. This comes as poll after poll over the last month has Reform UK ahead of the pack, with other recent polls by Opinium and Techne also ranking Reform top on 29%.

Frankly, there is no good way to spin this for the Tories and their leader Kemi Badenoch. Meanwhile there is only so long this can be chalked up to last July’s general election defeat. As things stand, the best the Conservatives can hope for is being junior partner in a Reform-led coalition with Farage as PM and the Tories swallowed up by his insurgent party.

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Shock poll shows Reform storming ahead on 29% as Tories drop to FOURTH

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Nigel Farage issues 12-word warning to Kemi Badenoch after disastrous poll

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Nigel Farage finally breaks silence after days of speculation about his disappearance

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Tories are on the hunt for ‘authentically Conservative’ candidates to beat Reform UK

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Reform deals even more council election blows to Labour and Tories with huge swings

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Lee Anderson weighs into Farage ‘absence’ row as ex-MP calls him ’emperor without clothes’

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Bombshell poll as Labour voters turn to Nigel Farage in hammer blow for Keir Starmer

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Keir Starmer is playing right into Nigel Farage’s hands

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Boris Johnson allies predict former PM will rescue Tories when Reform ‘self-destructs’

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Labour predicted to axe votes at 16 to stop Reform winning youth vote

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This Kemi Badenoch pivot is either genius or desperation in face of Reform UK

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UK heading for ‘earthquake’ with Nigel Farage leading pack

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Nigel Farage on course to be next PM in bombshell data boost for Reform UK

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Reform makes historic breakthrough that could put Nigel Farage in Number 10

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Labour’s electoral survival depends on pacifying pensioners

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Shock poll shows Reform storming ahead on 29% as Tories drop to FOURTH

Comments

Nigel Farage issues 12-word warning to Kemi Badenoch after disastrous poll

Comments

Nigel Farage finally breaks silence after days of speculation about his disappearance

Comments

Tories are on the hunt for ‘authentically Conservative’ candidates to beat Reform UK

Comments

Lee Anderson’s 4-word verdict as poll predicts Reform Commons majority and Lib Dems 2nd

Comments

Reform deals even more council election blows to Labour and Tories with huge swings

Comments

Nigel Farage exposes Keir Starmer ‘surrender’ to EU in major Brexit betrayal

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Lord Ashcroft to write blockbuster biography of Nigel Farage amid Reform surge

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Lee Anderson weighs into Farage ‘absence’ row as ex-MP calls him ’emperor without clothes’

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Bombshell poll as Labour voters turn to Nigel Farage in hammer blow for Keir Starmer

Comments

Keir Starmer is playing right into Nigel Farage’s hands

Comments

Boris Johnson allies predict former PM will rescue Tories when Reform ‘self-destructs’

Comments

Labour predicted to axe votes at 16 to stop Reform winning youth vote

Comments

This Kemi Badenoch pivot is either genius or desperation in face of Reform UK

Comments

UK heading for ‘earthquake’ with Nigel Farage leading pack

Comments

Furious voters are rejecting both the major parties as Reform, Lib Dems and Greens gain

Comments

Nigel Farage plans ‘blitz’ to humiliate Labour in Scotland and Wales elections

Comments

Nigel Farage on course to be next PM in bombshell data boost for Reform UK

Comments

Reform makes historic breakthrough that could put Nigel Farage in Number 10

Comments

Labour’s electoral survival depends on pacifying pensioners

Comments

Shock poll shows Reform storming ahead on 29% as Tories drop to FOURTH

Comments

Nigel Farage issues 12-word warning to Kemi Badenoch after disastrous poll

Comments

Nigel Farage finally breaks silence after days of speculation about his disappearance

Comments

Tories are on the hunt for ‘authentically Conservative’ candidates to beat Reform UK

Comments

Lee Anderson’s 4-word verdict as poll predicts Reform Commons majority and Lib Dems 2nd

Comments

Reform deals even more council election blows to Labour and Tories with huge swings

Comments

Nigel Farage exposes Keir Starmer ‘surrender’ to EU in major Brexit betrayal

Comments

Lord Ashcroft to write blockbuster biography of Nigel Farage amid Reform surge

Comments

Lee Anderson weighs into Farage ‘absence’ row as ex-MP calls him ’emperor without clothes’

Comments

Bombshell poll as Labour voters turn to Nigel Farage in hammer blow for Keir Starmer

Comments

Keir Starmer is playing right into Nigel Farage’s hands

Comments

Boris Johnson allies predict former PM will rescue Tories when Reform ‘self-destructs’

Comments

Labour predicted to axe votes at 16 to stop Reform winning youth vote

Comments

This Kemi Badenoch pivot is either genius or desperation in face of Reform UK

Comments

UK heading for ‘earthquake’ with Nigel Farage leading pack

Comments

Furious voters are rejecting both the major parties as Reform, Lib Dems and Greens gain

Comments

Nigel Farage plans ‘blitz’ to humiliate Labour in Scotland and Wales elections

Comments

Nigel Farage on course to be next PM in bombshell data boost for Reform UK

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Reform makes historic breakthrough that could put Nigel Farage in Number 10

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Labour’s electoral survival depends on pacifying pensioners

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Yet there is a risk for the Reform leader in all this good news. While my sense is the optics of dumping Badenoch in favour of say Robert Jenrick would be catastrophic, this situation can only go on for so long.

Bad optics or not, there will come a breaking point. Badenoch’s newfound pivot to the economy may work but only if the Tories speak loudly and with authority.

The problem the Tories have however is that after 14 years of record debt, record immigration, poor economic growth and botching Brexit, the public has understandably switched off from their message.

Worse, in the social media vibes era, authenticity trumps everything else. This is Badenoch’s and the Tories’ Achilles heel. But an ongoing Conservative collapse in the polls is also the risk lurking for Farage.

A new Tory leader may not turn the tide, but they might. Honestly would they do worse? If Badenoch’s leadership is aiding Reform, her ejection as leader could hurt Farage’s party.

Every poll like YouGov’s brings that ejection closer. True, Reform has no record of government. But Labour and the Tory records look increasingly bad to the British public.

Many voters will be willing to take a punt on the newbies, throwing their hands up and asking: “Can Reform really do any worse?”

Sir Keir Starmer now sees Farage as his real opposition in Parliament, while the Independent newspaper revealed Tory MPs are openly meeting to discuss removing Badenoch.

Rumours even abound of a comeback for Boris Johnson, perhaps the only man in British politics with the charisma and brand to rival Farage, whatever his failures as PM.

While the next general election is likely four years away, the Tories cannot go on like this. But nor can Farage assume Reform’s trajectory goes inexorably upwards.

Every poll like YouGov’s carries risks, both for the Tories and Reform. As things stand Nigel Farage is heading to Number 10. But if a week is a long time in politics, four years is a lifetime.