Changes to the Government’s welfare reforms will cost “around £2.5 billion in 2029/30”, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has told MPs.

Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of having “surrendered” the UK’s immigration system amid plans for a one in, one out asylum exchange with France.

The policy, which aims to slash the number of small boat arrivals, could be unveiled this week to mark Sir Keir’s first year in power.

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Around 150,000 more people will be pushed into relative poverty by 2030 because of welfare changes, the government’s modelling has suggested.

The figure is down from the 250,000 extra people estimated to have been left in relative poverty after housing costs under the original proposals.

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MPs will hold an emergency debate on the weekend’s Glastonbury outrage when the Commons begins sitting this afternoon.

The Commons speaker has granted two emergency questions: One on welfare cuts and one on Glastonbury.

The latter will likely begin at around 16:15.

The Liberal Democrats have demanded the PM call an emergency COBRA meeting over this week’s heatwave.

The party is calling on the government to put in place proper reliance measures to protect the NHS and key infrastructure, which often buckles and collapses in such weather.

The UK now has amber alerts covering much of England.

Commenting, Liberal Democrat Cabinet Office Spokesperson Sarah Olney MP said: “The Government must convene COBRA to ensure it is not caught flat-footed as temperatures rise. We need urgent coordination to protect lives, keep essential services running, and ensure our NHS isn’t overwhelmed.”

“We’re already experiencing the second heatwave this month alone, and extreme weather events are on the rise. This impacts everyone, from the health of the elderly and vulnerable, the safety of children in our schools and the security of our crops.

“The Government must be taking proactive steps to secure national infrastructure and build resilience in the face of this onslaught of heat.”

An additional 150,000 individuals will be in relative poverty after housing costs by the end of 2029-30 despite the watered-down welfare cuts, Government modelling published today suggests.

Sir Keir Starmer is “human” and has been expressing “the challenges that he is facing in the job”, a minister has said, after the Prime Minister said over the weekend he had been focused on international affairs rather than the growing welfare rebellion in recent weeks.

His comments to the Sunday Times came after another interview on Friday in which he said he “deeply regrets” claiming the UK risked becoming an “island of strangers” in an immigration speech, as he reeled from an alleged arson attack on his family home.

Asked about Sir Keir’s comments, former Labour Home Secretary Baroness Jacqui Smith told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “What you’ve just described Nick is a Prime Minister who is human and who expresses the challenges that he is facing in the job.

“But who has also focused on these welfare reforms in a way that will both achieve the necessary big change to welfare so that it actually serves people who need it, and on the details of how we can reassure people about how those changes will go about.”

The OBR has made no revisions to its estimate of 0.7% growth in quarter one of 2025.

However economist Julian Jessop says underlying growth remains particularly weak.

It’s believed Rachel Reeves will receive a blow in Q2 as forecasters suggest the economy may have shrunk by 0.3%.

The changes to the Government’s plans as a result of the rebellion by Labour MPs include:

All existing PIP recipients will remain on the current system and the proposed changes to eligibility as part of the bill will only apply to new claims from November 2026.

200,000 individuals in the Severe Conditions Criteria group – individuals with the most severe, lifelong conditions who are unlikely to recover – will not be called for a UC reassessment.

All existing recipients of the UC health element and new customers with 12 months or less to live or who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria will see their standard allowance combined with their Limited Capability for Work Related Activity (LCWRA) rise at least in line with inflation every year from 2026/27 to 2029/30.

Monthly Personal Independence Payment awards have more than doubled since the pandemic, rising from 13,000 to 34,000—a rate of around 1,000 new claims per day, or the population of Leicester every year.

Much of this increase is driven by mental health conditions with awards for anxiety and depression having tripled from 2,500 per month in 2019 to 8,200 in 2023.

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall will speak in the Commons today about plans to reduce the number of people eligible for disability benefits in future, and MPs including Labour backbenchers opposed to the changes will have a chance to ask questions.

The “second reading” vote on the measures takes place tomorrow.

The terms of reference for a comprehensive review of the Personal Independence Payments assessment will be published today. The review is something the Government promised in an effort to placate backbenchers opposed to its benefit cuts.

The review – led by Minister for Social Security and Disability, Sir Stephen Timms – will ensure the system is fair, supportive and reflects the realities of modern life, according to Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall.

It will be co-produced with disabled people and the organisations that represent them, answering one of the biggest complaints about Labour’s disability benefit cuts – that it failed to consult disabled people.

It’s thought around 50 Labour MPs are still seriously considering voting against the Government’s welfare cuts.

This is significantly down from the 126 that originally signed an amendment opposing plans to stop 800,000 people getting Personal Independence Payments, and suggests the Government’s compromise – promising no existing claimants will lose the money – has been effective.

But it’s still a sizeable rebellion, even if it means the Government is now expected to win tomorrow’s vote on the benefit cuts. And even some MPs who will support the Government in the vote are still furious about the way Sir Keir Starmer has handled this row.