Nigel Farage has drawn up a three-year plan to become prime minister as Reform UK starts preparing for government. It involves appointing a full shadow cabinet, despite having only five MPs at present, enlisting think tanks to help write a manifesto, and finishing off Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.

But the strategy depends on continued election success following Reform triumphs in this year’s polls on May 1, with next year’s Welsh Assembly vote and the 2027 local elections seen as key milestones. Mr Farage became convinced that entering No 10 was a real possibility following last year’s General Election, when his party won five seats but, crucially, came second in 98 others. However, friends say his drive to change the country for the better was bolstered by the birth of his first grandchild shortly before last year’s vote.

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The party is planning a publicity blitz during the summer period between Parliament rising on July 22 and the start of the party conference season in September. Known as the “silly season”, this is traditionally a period when politics grinds to a halt, barring unexpected emergencies.

Options include the publication of a dossier compiled by Zia Yusuf, former party chairman, who is carrying out an audit of waste in the 12 local authorities now controlled by Reform modelled on the DOGE inquiry led by Elon Musk in the US.

It has already revealed that Kent County Council spent more than £24,000 on trampolining, bowling and trips to the cinema – but this is just the tip of the iceberg, according to insiders. The plan is to release a substantial dossier rather than allowing findings to drip out over time.

Reform’s conference, at the National Exhibition Centre near Birmingham on September 5 and 6, will be a far cry from the traditional events held by the Brexit Party, as Reform used to be known, or UKIP, the separate party once led by Nigel Farage, which resembled rallies focused entirely on the leader’s speech.

There will be panel discussions on the main stage and an exhibition hall will provide an opportunity for businesses to have a presence – bringing in revenue for the party as well as adding to its credibility.

“Whether they think we are going to win an election or not, businesses know they have to engage with us,” said an insider.

The choice of venue is deliberate. Conservatives often hold their conferences at the International Convention Centre in the heart of Birmingham, but Reform has chosen the National Exhibition Centre on the outskirts of nearby Solihull. This is a 20-minute drive to Birmingham city centre – meaning attendees, including the media, are more likely to spend their evenings at conference-related events or the small selection of nearby hotel bars.

However, some of the most important work is taking place behind the scenes, as Reform develops detailed policy proposals designed to show it is a credible party of government.

There are hopes of creating a Reform-backing think tank, similar to think tanks linked to Labour or the Conservatives. The Centre for Policy Studies, for example, was co-founded by Margaret Thatcher and provided intellectual underpinnings for her period as Conservative prime minister.

But existing Right-wing think tanks are increasingly willing to engage with Reform and are being consulted on policy proposals.

“You’re only seeing 5% of what we do. There’s a lot taking place behind the scenes,” said one source.

“People know our position on immigration, but we also need to present policies on education and more,” said another.

Policy development suffered a setback when Mr Yusuf, who had been overseeing it, quit as party chairman. However, a series of policy boards have been set up to ensure it continues.

The results will begin to become clear in the run-up to next year’s elections to the Welsh Assembly. Reform believes it is in with a chance of gaining control of Wales, which has been Labour-run since the devolved government was created 26 years ago. Mr Farage will be making regular visits to the country.

A manifesto for Wales will cover the full range of policy areas and along with a manifesto for Scotland, where Reform believes it could come second, will signal the direction the party’s general election will take when the time comes.

It is a high-risk strategy. Politicians tend to play down their chances of election success in an effort to manage expectations, but Reform believes it is essential to convince voters – and the media – that it is a serious contender for power, and it talks up its prospects as a result.

The goal is to persuade voters that the Tories are finished and the only way to kick out Sir Keir and the Labour Party at the next election is to vote for Mr Farage. Local elections in 2027, when more than 7,000 council seats in England are up for grabs, could be a turning point.

If Reform once again makes major gains at the expense of the Conservatives, as it did in this year’s poll, strategists believe it will cement itself in voters’ minds as the real opposition. A dream scenario would be to frighten the Tories so much they launch a desperate bid to replace leader Mrs Badenoch.

But a particular worry for Mr Farage is the prospect of more splits in his party following his furious public battle with former Reform MP Rupert Lowe. This problem has dogged Mr Farage since his UKIP days, when the party won seats in the European Parliament only for one MEP after another to fall out with the leadership.

As a result, Reform is reluctant to accept defectors from other parties and any potential recruits have to go through a vigorous vetting process.

However, Mr Farage also knows he has to deal with a key concern many voters will have about a potential Reform government – the fact that none of its MPs have experience of power at Westminster and there are only five of them, far too few to form a cabinet, never mind junior ministerial posts. It raises the prospect of newly elected novices running key government departments if Mr Farage becomes prime minister.

He is looking to recruit experts from fields such as business and academia to stand as Reform parliamentary candidates. By this time in 2028, he hopes to be able to name the people who will be in his Cabinet and offer a “government of all the talents” – or GOATs – following the example of Gordon Brown, who also handed ministerial posts to experts from outside politics.

The unspoken fear is that the Reform bandwagon could come to a sudden end at any time. If Conservative poll ratings improve or Mrs Badenoch’s party makes gains in forthcoming council elections, it will look very much like a return to “politics as usual”.

But Reform believes it has two secret weapons. One is their mastery of social media such as TikTok, where Mr Farage has more followers than any other MP, including party leaders.

The other is their growing support among young people. Younger Reform backers are motivated less by concern about immigration or Brexit, the issues exercising many of the party’s older supporters, than by a sense that they have been handed a raw deal by the older generation, strategists say.

Reform insiders believe polling companies are failing to pick up the surge in youth support because it includes many who have never voted before.

A source said: “Look at the housing market. Younger voters have been treated unfairly and they know it, and they don’t trust the other parties to fix things. That’s why they are backing Reform.”