A major new study to examine the characteristics, motivations and priorities of potential Reform UK voters has revealed the issues on which Nigel Farage could be most electorally vulnerable.
A YouGov survey of over 3,000 people who said they were intending or considering voting for Reform UK commissioned by Best for Britain presented respondents with a random pair of messages from a selection of eight, criticising Nigel Farage and his party on separate issues. Respondents were asked to select which of the two messages they found most convincing and presented with another randomly selected pair until they had seen all eight messages.
With Farage previously voicing strong support for Liz Truss’ disastrous 2022 minibudget and with Reform UK having made billions in uncosted spending commitments, the research found that participants rated the message criticising Farage’s spending plans and economic credentials as the ‘most convincing’ almost 3-in-5 (57%) times.
A message suggesting Reform UK would do away with employment rights was almost as effective (56%), followed by a critique of Reform UK’s plans to cut social security and public spending by £140 billion (55%), and highlighting Farage’s previous comments on moving the NHS to a US-style insurance-based system (54%).
The findings are the latest from a major ongoing study into people who are considering voting for Reform UK at the next general election. Last month YouGov polling for the Decoding Populism investigation revealed five distinct groups among prospective Reform UK voters each with diverse backgrounds, motivations, beliefs and policy priorities.
Crucially, the polling published today found slight variations among Reform’s least committed supporters. 3 in 5 (59%) of the Melancholy Middle, who represent a fifth of all prospective Reform UK voters, were most convinced by criticisms tied to Farage’s plans for the NHS (59%) and his voting against greater employment rights (59%). Civic Pragmatists meanwhile, also representing a fifth of all Farage’s support, were most convinced by the economy (59%), employment rights (52%) and reminders of Nigel Farage’s role in Brexit (52%), estimated to have wiped 4% from UK GDP.
The findings also suggest a potential roadmap for Kemi Badenoch to claw back some of the voters the Conservatives have lost to Reform UK. The Traditional Conservatives segment is the most receptive of any group to an economic critique of Nigel Farage (66%) and more than half (58%) said they would consider backing the Tories at the next election when polled in the first phase of the Decoding Populism study.
Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain said,
“This week, Nigel Farage unveiled plans that if realised, will tear countless families apart in the UK and deliver unprecedented economic misery for millions more.
“If the Runcorn by-election was anything to go by, avoiding this could come down to the finest of margins and so identifying the messaging that is most likely to persuade those Reform voters who remain persuadable is absolutely crucial.”
Liam Byrne MP said,
“It’s time to reset Labour’s strategy for exposing Reform and now take ruthless aim at the weak centre of their offer – the economy, living standards and the public services we all rely on.
“The reality is Nigel Farage is Liz Truss 2.0 – a false preacher of patriotism who would leave Britain poorer but the richest richer.
“He flirts with US-style health insurance, he cheered on the Truss mini-budget, and now he’s peddling billions in unfunded promises that mean one thing for working families: higher mortgages, higher bills, weaker rights at work, and longer NHS queues.”
The messages used in the poll were:
Economy: Nigel Farage has made billions of pounds worth of spending commitments without any idea of how to pay for it. That risks putting up mortgage rates, food and energy bills even more. When prices are already high, we can’t let that happen again.
Employment rights: Parliament tried to pass a law to ban exploitative zero-hours contracts, protect sick pay, and guarantee fair hours. Reform UK voted against it. They want to scrap employment protections and cut health and safety rules. Farage talks about standing up for working people – but he’s voting to take their rights away.
Social security: Reform UK wants to slash public spending by £140 billion – targeting the support that working families, pensioners, and disabled people depend on. Most benefit claimants are in work or unable to work. Cutting their support to fund tax breaks for the richest isn’t standing with ordinary people – it’s punishing them.
NHS access: Farage has openly suggested moving the NHS to a US-style insurance system. That would end care based on need, not money. He’s since tried to backtrack, but the record’s clear. Now he wants cuts to public services – risking the very services people rely on. Our NHS is at risk if he wins the next election.
Donald Trump: Nigel Farage is Britain’s Trump: palling around with him, skipping work to attend rallies, and copying Trump’s approach to politics. Like Trump, he stokes division. Now he wants to be Prime Minister. A vote for Farage is a vote for Trump and chaos.
Corporate interest: Farage says he’s anti-elite but his party has taken over £2 million from fossil fuel lobbyists. He wants tax cuts for the rich, and has voted for fewer rights for workers. He’s not smashing the system – he is the system. He and his rich mates win, the rest of us lose.
Brexit: Nigel Farage was the chief architect of Brexit which has badly damaged the UK economy. He claimed it would be great for our country, but in reality it pushed up prices, slowed growth and made us all poorer. But he doesn’t regret it, proving he doesn’t do what is best for ordinary people.
Immigration: When we were in the EU, immigration and small boat crossings were lower. No one pushed for Brexit harder than Nigel Farage, and so no one else is more to blame for the high levels of people now trying to come to the UK than him.
All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 3,085 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 18th – 26th August 2025. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults either intending to vote for Reform UK, or considering voting Reform UK (6+/10) (aged 18+).
